10-26-2015, 05:20 AM

Topic: Decision Alternatives

Suppose that the percentage annual return you obtain when you invest a dollar in gold or the stock market is dependent on the general state of the national economy as indicated below. For example, the probability that the economy will be in "boom" state is 0.15. In this case, if you invest in the stock market your return is assumed to be 25%; on the other hand if you invest in gold when the economy is in a "boom" state your return will be minus 30%. Likewise for the other possible states of the economy. Note that the sum of the probabilities has to be 1--and is.

State of economy Probability Market Return Gold Return

Boom 0.15 25% (-30%)

Moderate Growth 0.35 20% (-9%)

Week Growth 0.25 5% 35%

No Growth 0.25 (-14%) 50%

Based on the expected return, would you rather invest your money in the stock market or in gold? Why?

Keep in mind that your post must be made by 11:55PM EASTERN time on Wednesday during the week in which a discussion question is posed. I will evaluate your responses to each of these questions using a 0 to 10 point scale, and your contribution to each of the five Discussion Forums will count as 2 percent of the overall course grade for a total of 10 percent.

My evaluation of your post will be based on the extent to which you participated and fostered a positive and effective learning environment--for yourself and others. Participating and sharing are the keys. Naturally, simply copying someone else's post is prohibited. Your post should reflect your understanding of the question posed. In addition to the computations you employed to arrive at your response, your post must contain comments regarding the rationale for the approach you utilized. Simply listing an answer is of no real value in promoting a discussion.

To make a post to this week's Discussion Forum, click on the Decision Alternatives link, then click Start a New Conversation. In the title block of the dialog box that appears insert your first and last name; compose your post in the message box; and then click Post Message.

Suppose that the percentage annual return you obtain when you invest a dollar in gold or the stock market is dependent on the general state of the national economy as indicated below. For example, the probability that the economy will be in "boom" state is 0.15. In this case, if you invest in the stock market your return is assumed to be 25%; on the other hand if you invest in gold when the economy is in a "boom" state your return will be minus 30%. Likewise for the other possible states of the economy. Note that the sum of the probabilities has to be 1--and is.

State of economy Probability Market Return Gold Return

Boom 0.15 25% (-30%)

Moderate Growth 0.35 20% (-9%)

Week Growth 0.25 5% 35%

No Growth 0.25 (-14%) 50%

Based on the expected return, would you rather invest your money in the stock market or in gold? Why?

Keep in mind that your post must be made by 11:55PM EASTERN time on Wednesday during the week in which a discussion question is posed. I will evaluate your responses to each of these questions using a 0 to 10 point scale, and your contribution to each of the five Discussion Forums will count as 2 percent of the overall course grade for a total of 10 percent.

My evaluation of your post will be based on the extent to which you participated and fostered a positive and effective learning environment--for yourself and others. Participating and sharing are the keys. Naturally, simply copying someone else's post is prohibited. Your post should reflect your understanding of the question posed. In addition to the computations you employed to arrive at your response, your post must contain comments regarding the rationale for the approach you utilized. Simply listing an answer is of no real value in promoting a discussion.

To make a post to this week's Discussion Forum, click on the Decision Alternatives link, then click Start a New Conversation. In the title block of the dialog box that appears insert your first and last name; compose your post in the message box; and then click Post Message.